BMI nhận định về quan hệ Việt – Trung
November 12, 2012 1 Comment
Đoạn dưới đây copy and paste từ báo cáo về an ninh và quốc phòng Việt Nam, do Business Monitor International thực hiện, Quý III, 2012. Bold là của tớ. Báo cáo này ngoài đường bán gần 1000 USD đấy nhá.
* * * *
As described above, Sino-Vietnamese ties became severely strained in the first half of 2011, with
Vietnam accusing China of aggressive behaviour in disputed areas of the South China Sea. But relations
have since improved. Bilateral meetings included the visit of Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo to
Hanoi in September, and the reciprocal visit of Vietnamese Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong to
Beijing the following month. The two countries have also been talking under the auspices of ASEAN:
China-ASEAN guidelines on a Declaration of Conduct in the South China Sea were formulated in July,
and China and Vietnam are partnering as co-chairs of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus
Expert Working Group on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
The two countries’ second annual security dialogue was held in Beijing in August 2011. At the meeting,
officials agreed to set up a defence hotline to help avoid any repeat of the escalation of tensions that
occurred in the first part of the year.
To further cement the improvement in relations achieved in the final months of 2011, Chinese Vice
President Xi Jinping, who is expected to succeed Hu Jintao as president in 2012, visited Vietnam in late
December 2011. The visit may prove to have been a turning point in the Sino-Vietnamese relationship.
After meeting with President Truong Tan Sang and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, Xi finalised
agreements whereby Vietnam will receive US$300mn in Chinese credit. With the Vietnamese economy
under pressure, and little assistance having been forthcoming from other sources, China’s gesture of
financial support will have earned it considerable good will.
Throughout its negotiations with the US, Vietnam has stressed that good relations with China remain a
priority. In BMI’s view, the desire to keep on good terms with Beijing will prevent the burgeoning
relationship between the US and Vietnam developing into a close alliance. Vietnam is naturally inclined
to maintain its strategic independence, and will ultimately not seek to side with – or antagonise – either
party unless it feels it has no other choice.
Addressing the 6th ASEAN Defence Minister Meeting (ADMM) in Phnom Penh in May 2012, Defence
Minister Phung Quang Thanh stressed that Sino-Vietnamese relations should not be seen through the lens
of South China Sea disputes. ‘It can be said that the current Vietnam-China relationship is one of
solidarity, friendship and multi-faceted cooperation, which helps socio-economic development and
maintains socio-politic stability in each country,’ he said. ‘The maritime dispute is the only contentious
issue that exists in Vietnamese-Chinese relations at present.’